If im honest I'm not overly confident with barnet either. They have a recruitment strategy where they take seemingly average players who fit their system and bring something they need. Its worked remarkably in the national but they have gone that way again in league two, and i think the squad lacks a bit of experience. There's an argument that we have gone too far the other way, and i get that. I think there needs to be a balance, but while I dont think our strategy will see us pushing play offs, I dont see us struggling either. If barnets strategy doesn't work they could be in real danger.
People tend to overestimate promoted teams anyway. It was alright for moneybags teams like Wrexham and Stockport, but the likes of Sutton United survived for one year on momentum then ran into problems the following year. The same happened with my home team in the second year back, despite having a lot of money to spend following a good cup run. Actually I rate Oldham's chances long-term better than Barnet's, if only for the fact that their manager, Mellon, has already been there and done that with Tranmere, so he will understand better what is needed. Second year back for Chesterfield. I think that they will find it harder this year than last year. More likely mid-table than promotion candidates.
Promoted teams are often carried forward on momentum. The following season opposing teams often know more what to expect. With Grimsby Town during the season before last, the squad looked stronger on paper than the team which carried them through to a very satisfactory 11th place the first year back. Better players maybe came in, but the team did not gel at all and were staring relegation in the face, before the new manager turned them round late in the season and they finished 21st. We all tend to be (over)optimistic about our own teams, I tend to watch trends and it is my (long) experience that the second season after promotion is usually more difficult. The exceptions to this rule are the clubs with tons of money (see Wrexham, Stockport) who can buy better players than most and have no qualms about changing the team, even when that includes the team's former heroes (see Wrexham this year with Paul Mullin). I am not seeing Chesterfield being relegation candidates, but I can also see a lot of teams improving on last year (MK Dons, Gillingham) and the relegated teams from L1, with the exception of Crawley maybe, all should be strong at this level and have good managers. The division is very competitive.
I get what you’re saying but I think we’ll be top 7 minimum. We scrapped PO with ridiculous no of injuries last year as well as losing 2 most effective players at time in Jan. We’ve massively improved in defence & signed a striker I expect (hope) to get 20+ goals. Not saying it’ll be easy but I think cook knows exactly where we were lacking last year & tried to address it.
Clarke, Harris and Appleton are very experienced managers, who tend to get the best out of their players. It was rather like McCann, Moore and Alexander last year. So while the teams may on paper not look as good as Doncaster and Bradford (I think a lot of people last year were surprised how good Port Vale were), managers are an important part of getting good results. It's also the reason why I think that MK Dons and Gillingham (who also have money to spend) will do better this year. As I have said elsewhere, I don't think that there is any outstanding team in the division this year which is certain to get promotion (I would have put money on Doncaster last year, if I were a betting man, which I am not, and Bradford were about due) - on paper at least. One team like yours (and mine!) may have reinforced and look better on paper, but so has the competition. Injuries can wreck a season as well.
and Paul Cook, what about him? For the record I think you’re miles off it with your opinion, but you’re entitled to it of course.
And you know this how exactly? Don't tell me 'on paper' because football is played on grass not paper. I watched a lot of L2 last season and while I do acknowledge that Donny and Bradford were a cut above the rest, Port Vale and Wimbledon were bang average.
I don't think our second season back here is particularly relevant mate. Where we went wrong there was allowing Paul Hurst to go shopping with all the FA Cup money thus abandoning the data led model. The owners also seemingly tried to dictate the style of play on the pitch and the result was an inefficient blob of a side trying to play with freedom but not really being able to do so because they were essentially Paul Hurst signings playing in a Paul Hurst side. Chesterfield, by contrast, have pretty much retained all the players they'd have liked to and added well to an already settled squad that have a set style of play and a manager who knows the club inside out. Also worth pointing out that they made the playoffs last season despite having an utterly horrendous injury list, the worst of any team in the division and maybe one of the worst I remember ever, if not then for some time. You might be right, but you're betting against some very strong logic. I don't think Chesterfield being favourites is something that has been plucked out of the air based on reputation and not much else (*cough* Bristol Rovers *cough*).
There is a quite startling amount of managers at this level this season with promotions on their CVs. I could be wrong but it's not usually the case, is it?
Wonder if it’s a case of clubs a little higher up the pyramid seemingly going for more younger, up and coming managers that prefer the ‘modern style’, therefore reducing opportunities for those gaffers a bit longer in the tooth that have had success previously, and that’s why they’re rocking up at this level more often?
Obviously none of us ‘know’ anything, but it would be tedious caveating every single post on here with an ‘in my opinion’ at the end, so you really have to take that as read don’t you? Port Vale were a good team, bullied us in the away game in a way no other team did, and were solid if not spectacular overall, but certainly better than I expect the relegated teams to be. Wimbledon obviously built their success of defensive solidity so more difficult to gauge exactly how good they were at anything else. In my opinion, of course
I think that's true, plus it seems more common (at Championship level especially) to bring managers in from overseas.
I think it's pretty obvious that it is harder to work out how relegated and promoted clubs will fair than those that were in the division last season. If you look at the pundits' spreads of predictions they are widest for my lot (Cambridge predicted between 2nd and 20th) followed by Barrow and Shrewsbury (6-22 and 7-23 respectively). Over the last ten year period covering 39 clubs (Bury went bust) nine were promoted straight back at the first attempt, so about 23%, and 13 finished 2nd-7th (none finished as champions). Nine finished in the bottom six with four (10%) relegated straight through; however quite a few of these were basket cases financially or footballing wise. The commonest position to finish was 3rd (5), followed by 17th (4) then 15th and 20th (3 each) - not sure what all this tells you, but it would not be a complete surprise if one or two of the relegated teams gave it a go for an immediate return.
Thanks for the assessment and the stats. I think that the thing this year is that the quality of management with the relegated teams is really good. Even though I don't expect Crawley to do much, it is worth remembering that Lindsey got them promoted (surprisingly) a couple of years ago. Darrell Clarke and Bristol Rovers worked extremely well a few years ago (OK, there may be the Paul Hurst syndrome about him that his best days are behind him and his tactics don't work any more). They are anyway going to be a big club at this level, and really should not have been relegated last year. Neil Harris is a very underrated manager and could be at a higher level and he nearly turned Cambridge round last year, while Michael Appleton worked wonders in his time at Lincoln, so Shrewsbury could benefit from having him. Maybe given time. The division as a whole though is very even this year, not a Wrexham or Stockport or Doncaster or Bradford City in sight, so the chances of a return must be quite good.
Mixed looking at his record, but I could say the same for most of the experienced managers in the division and this year are many good ones. Paul Warne was remarkably good at getting Rotherham promoted from League 1 and remarkably consistent at getting them relegated from the Championship (where he also struggled with Derby) - for example. Ian Holloway was a disaster at Grimsby but has done a decent job to date at Swindon. Meanwhile it is difficult to maintain consistent success unless you have a ton of money behind you. After a point there are limits which you reach and have to accept. Even if hope springs eternal. So telling people to expect potential problems? If people don't like it, so be it. The thing with me is that I try to avoid being partisan. I have taken flak from fellow GTFC fans this weekend after we hammered Crawley in the season opener for my prediction (only 14th?) - but given how equal this division is, and I cannot see one particular outstanding team, your almost impartial assessment is bound to be questioned. I hope that they will win promotion this year (if they play like they did last Saturday, they will, but it is a long season and a lot can happen). In passing, last season most of my predictions fell well short, but like the bookies I expected a lot more from MK Dons and Gillingham. I was right about Morecambe and Doncaster Rovers and nearly right about Bradford (4th, rather than 3rd).
