Very true, I think from our perspective we're guilty of thinking that teams in 4th-7th just win every week, as from personal experience I just haven't spent as much time looking at the top as I have the bottom in recent years. In reality those sorts of teams obviously do win more than they don't but struggle much more than you'd think. Chelsea for example have won tonight and it's their first win for 6 games and they're still 4th. Maybe it's just the natural mindset of a football fan - to always assume you'll lose points and your rivals will always gain points. Even last season in April we had Forest fans on our forum believing Luton would suddenly turn on Champions League form to stay up.
Yeah, in reality hitting the 70 point mark is far from perfection when you can get 114 points if you were. It's a bit more than 50% of the points available. But every point can be hard won in the league as everyone has something to offer as a team. I actually think home form is still crucial to it.
Forest need to get to 50% of their games won minimum to have a realistic chance of top 4/5 so that looks very achievable. Only 2 sides have finished top 5 in past 5 seasons having won less, and the points total to finish 3rd that season was 66, which will not be the case here. Beyond that their GD is the only real point of concern I guess for them since that is worth a point and it is the worst in the top 6 right now.
60/61 pts has been enough for 7th in the past two seasons. That could well be enough for Europa League football this season depending on who wins the cups. That's 5 wins and a draw from our next 16 games. I know we're in CL contention but I honestly would be ecstatic with any type of European football. anything can happen though and we're due a bit of a dip in form at some point.
If you're being less romantic you would be way better off in the Europa League from a perspective of competitiveness I'd say. Though I'd still imagine Forest (with a Summer window) are still capable to finish in the play-off places in the CL. But Europa you would have a decent chance of a QF perhaps? Maybe more.. But obviously from a story perspective, Forest in the CL would be great.
Does it matter now? They would be 4th seeds either way so getting games against 2 3rd seeds and another 4th seeded team gives them the chance to get at least 9 points. It's not the hiding it once was imo. I would guess thst depending on the draw forest would be potentially as good as a 2nd seed side thst thry might draw. Plus 80mil v 10 or 20mil max says cl all the way. I'd back forest to get out of the expanded cl group if they really give it a go
I guess but obviously a lot could go wrong with finding yourselves at a level you're not quite ready for, especially when your best performers inevitably get targeted. It would not be unusual at all for Forest to be bottom half again next season. I am just saying I think they have a better likelihood of building something sustainable from a EL campaign next season.
Forest wouldn't get anywhere close to £80m from the CL (maybe unless they won it I guess). From what I understand, clubs get part of the payments based on their coefficient, meaning a club like man u made a lot more money than Newcastle for last season even though they did equally poorly Still better than the Europa league obviously, but realistically the gap would be closer to £10 or 20m than £50 or £60m
What's the tv pool now for the expanded cl and what's the prize for reaching the last 32? There's a country pool for clubs and a club pool so forest will be quids in here. My big point though is that the expanded format means I really think Forest could qualify and play better teams doing it.
No idea, but going off the numbers I could find from a quick Google, Newcastle apparently got £30m for going out in the group last year, while man u got £52m for going out at the same stage. That's a bit under 60%. Arsenal with a very similar coefficient to man u got £81m for getting to the 1/4s, so assuming the same ratio (unless the prize pool has expanded significantly) forest might expect in the region of £47m if they made it all the way to the 1/4s
That was for 4th as well. Very good chance that 5th comes into play this year. It 'should' be more because of the two extra group games.
Sure sure, and I think those figures only include the prize money so there'd also be extra on top for the match day income. It's a huge amount of extra money and could do wonders for a club that uses it wisely and/or manages to qualify for the CL a few times in a shortish period. It's just a lot less for teams qualifying for the first (or first few) time(s) than you'd expect it to be if you look at the money CL regulars get is the only point I was making - Newcastle would probably have had to make it to the semi final to outearn man u for example
It's honestly incredible how often your rivals will slip up in the run in. We picked up 11 points from our last 12 fixtures in 18/19 and still finished in the top 4 because every week our rivals would fail to capitalise on more dropped points. We literally couldn't throw it away, it was hysterical. 2018–19 Tottenham Hotspur F.C. season - Wikipedia
Our board cancelled our stadium expansion so they could make as much money as possible from the Champions League this season, including a minimum £95 for a general sale ticket. It is also easier to qualify for the knockout stages this time as only 12 teams are knocked out and it is one big league with some genuinely rubbish teams. For most teams you are getting at least ten games including five at home with all the matchday revenue, plus all the TV money/prize money etc.
Don't 9-24 go into a play off round? Does that actually count as getting to the knockout stages? Last season I wouldn't really have counted us as getting to the Europa knockout rounds if we'd finished 2nd and then lost in the play off against the champions league sides
Yes you are right. My point was it is easier to qualify for an extra game and therefore generate more money.
Ah, fair enough. I ignored the extra games when doing the napkin maths as I was just trying to compare how much forest may get in the champions league Vs Europa league next season. The extra games in the champions league do generate a lot of extra match day income, but most of that would probably also be generated from qualifying for the Europa league. Sure, you'd expect them to have lower ticket prices and so lower income per match Vs the champions league, but they'd also have a much better chance of going further in the competition to get 2/4/6 extra games to make up for that lower per match income. Overall I'd guess that the difference in match day income between the Europa league and champions league is pretty insignificant compared to the difference in the central prize money payments
Top 8 really getting congested. Could make for a very interesting run-in. Things stay as they are and Villa win tomorrow could be 6 points between 2nd and 8th.
