I think we could lose all three games and that's still Europe wrapped up for us tonight. United really are woeful.
Sides who want to chase top 4 have to be able to try and sustain it. There's zero point doing a Newcastle. West ham have now played conference and we're nearly relegated doing it and played europa to the qf and are 9th so no Europe at all next. Brighton similar. It's all about building the size and quality of squad to compete isn't it. Spurs have had a lot of injuries. It has shown in their back line and troubles so they took the knock.
Shame Brighton fell off a bit because the midweek games look like they will be good with the sides going for European spots.
Going too high, too quickly? I do think that's a thing and if you couple it with qualifying for the Champions League whilst having no Europe, you're in for trouble. Over the last ten years for example, when it comes to no Europe and then being in the CL, there's one outlier and that's Klopp's Liverpool. They finished top 4 in 2016/2017 and managed to make it stick the season after. But there are so many others that didn't. Rodgers' Liverpool in 2014/15 Conte's Chelsea in 2017/18 Conte's Tottenham in 2022/2023 (no Europe in the second half of the previous season) Howe's Newcastle in 2022/2023 I've left out Leicester but they'd be one of those sides too. All those sides went from no Europe to having to juggle the Champions Laague. You're not going to transform a squad that was not good enough to qualify for Europe to being able to juggle the PL and CL in just three transfer windows. It's why I think Spurs not making the CL this year is better for them in the long run. Them being in that competition next year just puts a squad nowhere near ready under even more pressure. I said as much about Newcastle last summer. I think a side already in the Europa or Europa conference that then finishes top 4 and qualifies for the champions league is better equipped to maintain that status for the coming years.
That might be true for teams like spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea, etc. but I don't think it tracks for all teams. Take us for example: we derived no benefit from being in the Europa league instead of the champions league this season. Our squad isn't strong enough to field a weaker side in the Europa, and so we ended up playing exactly the same 11 in each game as we would have for the champions league. In fact, arguably being in the champions league would have been advantageous to our league finish. Even if we didn't end up playing fewer games due to being knocked out in the group like Newcastle (which would have been likely if we'd been in their group), you'd have to wonder whether being in the champions league would have allowed us to persuade Mac allister and/or caicedo to stay? Would we have been able to get the kudus deal over the line if his choice was between us in the champions league Vs west ham in the Europa, rather than two teams in the Europa with west ham probably offering a much higher wage? There would really have been no downsides for us, even if our summer window was identical. Even the champions league schedule is by all accounts easier to manage than the Thursday/Sunday Europa schedule. If we'd been in the conference league, would it have made a difference? Maybe? We might have picked up a few more points due to being able to rest some of our better players in those games, but ultimately the evidence is lacking. West ham seemed to struggle to balance the league and conference in 22/23 much more than the league and Europa in 21/22 after all, even despite having a seasons worth of experience doing so at that point. And as far as I'm aware, they didn't lose anyone important that summer either. The real test would be how villa do next year I guess, but even if they succeed I don't think that necessarily means it is a superior pathway for every club
Getting to cl early in their oilmmoney cycle then utterly flopping. Yes they have recovered somewhat this last few.montjs as utd have fallen away but again they couldn't cope with the amount of football and injuries affected them. Newcastle still have a lot of players that could only be described as average (I'd say.mediocre but that word has a negativity about it) thry are decent players but not up to the task. I'm sure tjst newcastle.will announce more and more sponsors and with fifa in their paymasters pocket now are going to dominate English football very soon.
I understand the arguments you’re making, and short term Newcastle have definitely finished lower this season than last because they got to the CL. However, I think the benefits still outweigh the slight drop in the table they have this year. They’ve been able to attract better players (like Tonali) they’d have never been able to get otherwise. Their reputation will be increased and they’ll likely be a bit more stable with their manager decisions too. That’s all without the added financial benefits both through the actual competiton, but also being able to negotiate better sponsorship deals as well. They probably were better able to hold onto their star players like Bruno last season because of it. All of those benefits will last far longer than one season. There’s no guarantee they would have progressed to the CL spots this year had they not been in it last year. They’ve also been hit with massive injury problems this year, far more than any team - I don’t think where they are in the table is a particularly fair reflection. There’s just so much competition for the top 4 these days - clubs have got to grab whatever opportunities they can to get it. I understand the logic for your arguments and it might have cost them a place or two in the league this year but I think the benefits far outweigh that cost. Wouldn’t surprise me if they qualified again next year - more likely they’ll be somewhere in 5th-8th, but that’ll be about right for the budget they have.
Money is always the prime motivator. Newcastle didn't need cl to cancel all their sponsors and replace them last summer. They will do more of this this summer. Their revenues will shoot up and with that the squad will come They will be spending right up to the limits and more as they bring in that revenues but they will be paying the big wages to attract players and that's more important than anything else. To be a consistent European performer you must get the squad size up but have the quality to cope with 2 games a week. In Newcastle case it's not like the case for a "normal" club any more. They are divorced now from the reality of having to make ends meet and will fake up that revenue very quick so they don't care if they popped in one year. Villa will probably be a better example as they've had their flirt with Europe in the conference and have jumped to the cl spots. A lot of English clubs will manage the conference league using reserves but villa did very well so far but have ran into an average European side and lost. Villa have revenues of 218mil which is not even close to Newcastle already and half that of spurs. They will struggle to build thst squad and I think they will seriously struggle to keep the leavue form and manage the cl. Imo Newcastle will spend about 200mil this summer. They jumped by 36% in revenues last year before cl funding so I fully expect them to hit the 400mil marl from nowhere.
Problem is teams like ourselves kind of just have to get there quickly, or just get raided by the big 6. Arsenal and co is ok as your players dont get raided, you are too big for it. We couldnt even keep Kante who was Claudio's most key player for a CL campaign and as champions of England. He left us for a club who hadnt even qualified for Europe.
It's all about wages in the end. Leicester did great but the second they had the players break through the Chelsea and city bids felt in and those players wanted the wages (and higher chance at medals let's.be honest) Arsenal wanted vardy and he rejected them? Arsenal are giving every player a massive contract right now so they dont get stripped. They can afford to do so. We have done so. This is what's happened to Brighton as well. We've gone after a player, Chelsea have gone after players.
I know City are well in the driving seat now but Arsenal being 8/1 to win the title seems very generous considering it all comes down to one 'gameweek'. Yes City have always got the job done in the past but they made an absolute hash of it against both QPR and Villa, two sides who were worse than West Ham are now. If they fail to get an early goal the nerves will kick in and with the likes of Paqueta, Bowen, Kudus etc. on the pitch I'd fancy West Ham to give them some problems at the other end. Throw in the fact it's Moyes' last game and you never know. He'll also be keen to help out his mate Arteta. Of course Arsenal would have to do their job as well, which isn't a given, but 8/1 seems very generous to me.
It was also mentioned last night that in the last 32 years since football was invented, on only one occasion has the team in 1st going into the final day failed to win the league. However, I'm unsure without checking how often it was possible for the 1st place team to end up 2nd or below with a loss and other results going against them.
As much as I find Arteta an irritating whiny prick, a proper club like Arsenal winning the title would be a triumph for football in the same way us winning it was four years ago. But for that reason in a weird way I'm conflicted. Outside of their own fan base, another title for City means nothing to pretty much everyone else, so it then just becomes another meaningless season that can have a line drawn through it and subsequently ignored by history. Where as with Arsenal it would be a real title win and fully deserved. It's a strange one and I'm not sure what to hope for in honesty.
I think pep has never made a mistake on the last day. This will be his 3rd season actually being pushed to it or 4th? The betting reflects that imo I've never seen nerves at city plus it's at home as well. With the best will in the world West ham.players won't be listening to moyes saying g the can win. They will want to not get beat badly and get out of there and to the beach or internationals.
Why would it mean something to other fans apart from the ones winning it? Liverpool, Arsenal etc. aren't bastions of football. I couldn't care less if City , Arsenal, United etc. won it's all the same to me. Big rich clubs winning over and over.
